Organ

Polymarket · Kalshi scanner

Live board of cross-venue arb and asymmetric bets worth acting on.

Demo book·Jul 23, 03:08 PM

On board

Seeded markets

Actionable

Ready to size

Arb / asymmetric

4 / 2

By opportunity type

Best net edge

+3.10¢

After rough fees

KindStatusMin edgeSort

OpportunityNet edgeProfitStatusConf

Cross-venue arbActionableMacro

Fed cuts rates at least once by September 2026

Polymarket YES trades 4.8¢ below Kalshi YES after rough fee drag. Same resolution window, clean event mapping.

Net edge

+3.10¢

Gross edge

+4.80¢

Est. / $1k

$31

Confidence

82%

Venue legs

Polymarket

Yes · pm-fed-cut-sept

Open

Yes: 41.0¢
No: 60.0¢
Liquidity: $420k
24h vol: $186k

Kalshi

Yes · kx-fed-cut-sept

Open

Yes: 45.8¢
No: 55.0¢
Liquidity: $290k
24h vol: $94k

Thesis

Buy Polymarket YES and sell / hedge with Kalshi YES. Event wording matches within the same FOMC window; residual basis is mainly fee and fill risk.

Action steps

Size to the thinner side first (Kalshi ~$290k liquidity).
Buy Polymarket YES at ≤0.42.
Sell / short Kalshi YES near 0.45–0.46.
Re-check edge after both fills; abort if net edge falls under 150 bps.

Risks

Resolution wording may diverge if a special meeting is treated differently.
Kalshi fees compress net edge under ~$2k size.
simultaneous fills are not guaranteed during thin books.

ratescross-venueliquid

Detected 4h ago · window to 9/18/2026

Founder-first demo board. Edges are illustrative after rough fees — not live venue quotes. Next step is wiring Polymarket and Kalshi feeds into this same shell.